China and The Middle East
Pauline travelled to these parts in a hair raising awakening to doing International Business
1. China Slowing Economy
Post: 2016 The Chinese economy is still slowing as a result of the world economy having slowed in the past 2 years. Not everybody in the western world felt the full effects of the European recession, many economies were bolstered up by Government intervention, but those in mining and other regional primary industries took the full brunt of the big "Write Off". Unfortunately in 2016 where we could normally expect an end to this quite normal economic cycle it will instead make it's way to many more sectors, and hold our economy in suspension for at least one more year, while we wait for China to recover from it's doldrums.
This is the first Chinese business generation to experience the lulls of the typical Western 20-40 year economic cycle, and being the centre of much of the worlds manufacturing this will be a difficult and shocking time for China, whom have only had the experience of a generation of massive growth and abundance.
We are likely to witness some of China's major organizations, particularly those that rely on Western trade, shrinking, failing and folding, which will have a general domino effect within China and then the World.
2017 Update: This has happened as predicted, but the good news for them, and us is the world will begin trading again after the Big Write Off has been completed, suggest September 2017 western trade will begin to move again ... this is a good time to trigger a boost to spending for Christmas Trade.
Chinese learn fast and can no longer afford to operate dishonestly or be the suppliers of defective goods. I predict that 2017-2018 will be the turning point for China to embrace integrity and a new scope of high quality goods, including technological and environmental innovations. I believe that China will take us in to Space.
Post 2016 The most obvious caution will be that of dealing directly with China and paying for goods and services, as recessions bring about many accidental thieves and organized corruption increases. Smart business will return to the use of Letters of Credit to protect investments from failure.
The Chinese as matter of desperation have already begun measures to market directly to global consumers. This will obviously cut out many of their former importing customers.
2017 Update: As predicted, major corruption has been exposed around shipping, internet hacking scams, telemarketing scams and drug busts pulling in fraudsters right across the Pacific.
There has been a big buy up of businesses in Malaysia, Australia and Papua New Guinea to deal direct, and this likely cuts out the people who gave them the ideas and technology.
We should not be so annoyed with this as Europeans (including UK, America & Australia) have done this for hundreds of years, but we should now nip this in the bud, because if we don't, we will be flooded.
We have allowed ourselves to lower standard of goods and services, we have turned our back on th ethics and safety we fought so hard for in the past : e.g. Student Drive Car alternative to Taxis.
Vehicle safety is not part of the deal when you use Uber or Grab in Asia, and the whole industry has been comprised so that even the taxis are substandard. Construction Industry Horrors. Another industry we have turned our back on .. e.g. Building materials containing Asbestos or high combustibility snuck into our country and have been installed without checking safety, they even managed to import drugs using corrupt shipping firms.
3. Reverse Trade to China
Despite the shifting of export marketing in China, the general wealth of local middle class Chinese consumers will continue to grow. A new understanding of pollution and toxicity, educated and affluent Chinese have lowered their trust in locally produced products, particularly food and beverage, so the import of clean foods will be on the rise.
Asia and Indonesia are also looking for new avenues for food products not wishing to source from China.
With the current Australian and Pacific currency now being so atrociously high, this is an opportunity to take back many manufacturing and production pursuits and market good quality items to this new consumer resource.
4. Asian Tourists
There are big opportunities to bring Asian Tourists to Australia - in my time in Kuala Lumpur I was most impressed by the daily bus loads of Chinese Tourists (up to 50 buses a day) that would pull up and fill the 500 room hotel I was staying in.
They do not just like visiting cities, but are also very interested in nature, animals, bush and forest and low set buildings because there is very little of this left in China. Australian tour operators have learned that they must create the opportunity quickly or the Chinese will create their own ... e.g. there has been a new Billion Dollar resort proposed for Cairns for some years, but unless someone can develop an environmentally sound concept, this will likely never eventuate. The strong green heritage of Cairns is something to be admired, not ridiculed, but it could be done in a eco fashion..
Opinion on the future of Arabic product marketing
Fell in love with the Arabs literally, (actually married one in Malaysia in 2017 in a Muslim Marriage, not recognised by the West), was sincerely working on a few options to assist in a construction capacity and a way to have my relationship work. The futility was horrid and the awakening of who is actually in charge of these global concerns, it can only be described as filth.
The 50 year war has meant there has been very little local production in countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Iran which rely heavily on bringing products and services into the country from outside. As the Chinese Yen increases in value, other countries of the world have the opportunity to supply goods and services, particularly in the food line.
The availability of internet technology in the Middle East is still in it's infancy and will be a huge growth industry in the next 2-5 years, and it's use has very much awakened an interest of the western model in the younger generation who embrace their computing and telecommunications as much as anyone in the European world.
The internet has the benefit of merging ideals and we can expect to see the internet being a great catalyst for peace and prosperity.
2017 Update I urge as many Australians as possible to visit the Middle East and Muslim dominated countries and meet the people.
Most of us in the West have totally misconceived ideas of who they are and their religious beliefs and practices.
It is considered by those I met in the Middle East that many terrorist groups do not really exist, but are in fact mercenary groups paid by unknown sources, to pose as Muslim radicals, recruiting mentally challenged men and women into a phantom cause, with the sole purpose of selling billions of dollars of weapons.
In marketing we call this knee jerk marketing - fear is a great catalyst for selling. How they get away with it and how we continue to believe it ... is beyond me.
My friends in Baghdad whom have been involved in real local wars for up to 50 years, are as miffed about what is occurring in Mosul and Syria, as the rest of the world and their sole source of information comes from t.v. news media, and the global tabloids ...
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